Author Archives: Zenonas Tziarras

Η Τουρκία, οι Κούρδοι και το Ισλαμικό Κράτος

Source Reuters

Μεταξύ των παραδόξων της Μέσης Ανατολής σήμερα, είναι η σχέση της Τουρκίας με τους Κούρδους του Ιράκ και το «δημόσιο μυστικό» της σχέσης της με το Ισλαμικό Κράτος (πρώην Ισλαμικό Κράτος του Ιράκ και της Μεγάλης Συρίας) το οποίο έχει καταλάβει εδάφη σε Συρία και Ιράκ και έχει ανακηρύξει την ντε φάκτο εγκαθίδρυση Ισλαμικού Χαλιφάτου. Πώς εξηγείται η συνεργασία της Τουρκίας με τους Κούρδους που μέχρι πρότινος θεωρούσε απειλή και τι έχει να κερδίσει από το Ισλαμικό Κράτος; Continue reading

Turkey is Facing a Highly Uncertain Future

Source: Reuters

The Turkish presidential elections of August 10, 2014, bear great significance for the country’s future as well as for its domestic and foreign policies. This will be the first time that the Turkish people will directly elect the president of the Republic; something which, in conjunction with the constitutional reform process, signifies Turkey’s gradual shift from a parliamentary to a presidential system.

The main candidates are three. The current Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of Justice and Development Party (AKP); Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, who is supported by the two main opposition parties (Republican People’s Party and Nationalist Action Party), as well as by three smaller parties (Democratic Left Party, Independent Turkey Party, and Democratic Party). The third and with less chances candidate is Selahattin Demirtas, the co-president of the main pro-Kurdish party of Turkey, People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Continue reading

H Τουρκία Οδεύει προς την Αστάθεια και την Αβεβαιότητα

Source: Reuters

Οι προεδρικές εκλογές στην Τουρκία, της 10η Αυγούστου, έχουν μεγάλη σημασία για το μέλλον της χώρας καθώς και για τις πολιτικές της στο εσωτερικό και εξωτερικό. Αυτή θα είναι η πρώτη φορά που ο τουρκικός λαός θα εκλέξει απευθείας πρόεδρο της δημοκρατίας, κάτι το οποίο, σε συνάρτηση με τη διαδικασία μεταρρύθμισης του συντάγματος, σηματοδοτεί τη σταδιακή μετάβαση της Τουρκίας από το προεδρευόμενο στο προεδρικό σύστημα.

Οι κύριοι υποψήφιοι πρόεδροι είναι τρείς. Ο νυν πρωθυπουργός, Ρετζέπ Ταγίπ Έρντογαν, του Κόμματος Δικαιοσύνης και Ανάπτυξής (ΑΚΡ), ο Εκμελεντίν Ιχσάνογλου που υποστηρίζεται από τα δύο κύρια κόμματα της αντιπολίτευσης (το Ρεπουμπλικανικό Λαϊκό Κόμμα και το Κόμμα Εθνικιστικής Δράσης) καθώς και από τρία μικρότερα κόμματα (της Δημοκρατικής Αριστεράς, το Ανεξάρτητο Τουρκικό, και το Δημοκρατικό). Ο τρίτος και με τις λιγότερες πιθανότητες υποψήφιος είναι ο Σελαχατίν Ντεμίρτας, ο συμπρόεδρος του κυριότερου φιλοκουρδικού κόμματος της Τουρκίας, του Λαϊκού Δημοκρατικού Κόμματος (HDP). Continue reading

The Iraq Crisis and Its Geopolitical Implications

Source: Reuters

On June 10, 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (i.e. Greater Syria) – henceforth, ISIS – surprised the world by advancing into several territories of central and northern Iraq. Most notably, ISIS has taken over Iraq’s second biggest city, Mosul, and the also important cities of Fallujah and Tikrit (the birthplace of former Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein). ISIS has also tried to gain control of the oil-rich area of Kirkuk (which is now under the control of Iraqi Kurdish forces). Furthermore, it is said that the vitally important oil refinery in Baiji has been almost completely taken over by ISIS in an offensive against the Iraqi army.

Most importantly, ISIS has declared itself to be an Islamist “Caliphate” (i.e. Islamic state) and has unilaterallydeclared statehood in Syrian and Iraqi territories under its control. The group has recently renamed itself as the “Islamic State” and declared the group’s leader, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, as the new caliph of the Islamic State and the leader of Muslims everywhere.

ISIS’offensive has left the Iraqi state in a dire situation, ridden by sectarian and ethnic conflict. The conflict has created a large number of refugees, and has threatened Iraq’s capital, Baghdad. The following addresses the roots and ideological features of the conflict, in addition to the geopolitical implications of the Iraqi crisis for regional relations and U.S. foreign policy. Emphasis is placed upon analyzing the most important developments and their implications rather than on facts, as the situation on the ground is highly fluid. Continue reading

Turkey’s “Multi-Scenario” Foreign Policy

Abstract

Turkish foreign policy has always been a puzzling issue for both Western and non-Western scholars. Yet, the ascendance of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP) to power in 2002 made things even more complicated as it signified the gradual break of a national ideological tradition and the emergence of a post-Kemalist, neo-Islamist, ideological framework. Despite the various existing explanations, analyses and interpretations of the AKP’s foreign policy, this paper seeks to contribute to this debate by employing a different (multi-scenario) approach. It assumes that the conduct of Turkish foreign policy is based on the existence of probable scenarios, often substitutionary to each other. If that is indeed the case, then Turkish foreign policy is conducted in an opportunistic way which lacks a specific Western or Eastern orientation, and aims at the maximization of benefits in different isolated issues thus diminishing the possibility of having a comprehensive grand strategy. Through this prism it is made clear that every important issue on Turkish foreign policy agenda plays a central role in its indecisiveness and leads de facto to a Multi-Scenario foreign policy.

Click to here to read the full peer-reviewed publication on the Centre for Policy and Research on Turkey.