Tag Archives: Terrorism

New Paper – Islamic Caliphate: A Quasi-State, A Global Security Threat

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A new paper was released by the Journal of Applied Security Research entitled “Islamic Caliphate: A Quasi-State, A Global Security Threat“.

Abstract

200px-journal_of_applied_security_researchThis article examines the “Islamic State” (IS) phenomenon that has shaken the Middle East since the summer of 2014 as well as its large-scale security implications. To this end the article provides a brief historical background on IS, explores and defines its organizational character, as well as identifies and evaluates the different kinds of security threats posed by IS at the regional and global levels. The argument is that IS is not a typical case of a terrorist organization. It is rather a fusion of a state, an insurgency, and a terrorist organization that could be best described as a “quasi-state.” Further, the security threats posed by IS are categorized into conventional and asymmetrical (or nonconventional) ones. The former regard the regional level, while the latter can even have global repercussions. The article concludes with an assessment of IS’s most important security threats and highlights the importance of dealing with its extremist ideology and the conditions that fuel it.

The paper can also be accessed on Academia.edu.

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Talk – The Impact of ISIS on Middle East and Turkey Politics

Talk (Video & Text) delivered at the conference “EU Foreign Policy and Humanitarian Aid: Developments in the Middle East”, on October 16, 2015. Organized by The European Parliament Offices in Cyprus & Greece, The Representation of the European Commission in Cyprus & the Diplomatic Academy of the University of Nicosia. 

Introduction

A lot can be said and speculated about the roots and the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh. It is, however, undeniable that its military advances and territorial gains in Iraq and Syria have had a great impact on the politics of the greater Middle East and beyond. Its presence, operations and organizational character have changed the geo-political landscape of the region and the strategic calculations of many states around it and across the world. At the same time it gave new meaning and significance to transnational asymmetrical security threats. Continue reading

The Difference Between Killing the Insurgents and Fighting an Insurgency

There is a big difference between fighting an insurgency and killing the insurgents. The latter cannot only by itself bring about the wanted results. To understand this better we have to firstly examine what insurgencies are. In a few words, insurgencies are popular movements that try to bring about the change of the status quo through the use or the threat of use of violence. They are run by radical elites, consist of people with certain socio-political background, and they use guerrilla and terrorist tactics to accomplish their political aims.

The key word in the above definition is “popular”. They acquire power and support from the people; that is their strongest spot. It is also important to note that insurgencies cannot be defeated unless they clearly accept their defeat. That is because they are not conventional armies and their power is not solely based on their military power. The most prominent characteristic of them is their political aims and the popular support. Even if there are only a few people left undertaking the insurgency, if they still have the support of the people to achieve their political aims, they can then keep going on. Likewise, if they lose the popular support, then their actions – whatever their political aims – have no legitimisation within the people, a fact which in turn weakens them and leads them to their end. Besides, guerrilla warfare has shown through history that it can accomplish great victories against strong nations and also that it can be defeated very hardly and only if it chooses to. Examples of die-hard insurgencies are the EOKA organisation in Cyprus (55’-59’) which – along with other factors – led the British to leave Cyprus; also the Kurdish insurgents and separatists in Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran who have been fighting Turkey for almost a century. Example of an insurgency which admitted its defeat after many years of fighting is the one of Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. They accepted their defeat after a series of intense violent clashes with the Sri Lankan government in 2009. Lastly, we should not forget of course the ongoing insurgencies in Iraq which are giving the US a very hard time even after the major American counterinsurgency operation “The Surge”, in 2007.

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